As we approach the critical fantasy baseball season, the time for decisive action is upon us. My own league's playoff race is heating up, and I'm facing a dilemma at shortstop. Otto Lopez and Colson Montgomery, my reliable shortstops for most of the season, are now struggling, and the data suggests it's time to shake things up. Lopez's bat, once on fire, has cooled, and Montgomery's luck gap is non-existent. So, who can we turn to for a much-needed boost?
Let's delve into the world of wOBA (weighted on-base average) and explore the overperformers and underperformers post-All-Star break.
Overperformers
The top overperformers since the break include some intriguing names. Chandler Simpson of the Tampa Bay Rays leads the pack with a wOBA of .372, significantly outperforming his expected wOBA of .268. Chase Meidroth of the Chicago White Sox and Ty France of the San Diego Padres also stand out, with their wOBAs exceeding expectations by a substantial margin.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the role of luck, as indicated by BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Simpson, for instance, has a BABIP of .420, suggesting he's been incredibly fortunate. On the other hand, Meidroth's BABIP of .355 hints at a player who might be due for some regression.
Underperformers
Now, let's shift our focus to the underperformers. Ben Rice of the New York Yankees tops this list, with a wOBA of .260 falling well short of his expected wOBA of .342. Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers and Xander Bogaerts of the San Diego Padres also find themselves in this category, with their wOBAs underperforming their expected levels.
The underperformance of these players raises an interesting question: are we witnessing a temporary slump, or is there something more systemic at play?
Regression in Boston
The Boston Red Sox, riding high on a 15-game winning streak in July, have since cooled off. Their recent struggles are reflected in the wOBA data, with five hitters overperforming expectations. Ceddanne Rafaela, Caleb Durbin, and Andruw Monasterio are among those who have exceeded expectations, but their output might not be sustainable.
For fantasy managers relying on these Boston bats, it's crucial to monitor their performance closely. The Red Sox's recent dip in form suggests that a change might be necessary to maintain a playoff push.
Milwaukee's Turnaround
In contrast, the Milwaukee Brewers seem poised for a strong finish to the season. Despite a recent minor slide, their overall performance suggests a team on the rise. Interestingly, Milwaukee has three players among the top ten underperformers, with Christian Yelich and William Contreras leading the way.
Contreras's low BABIP of .167, despite an xwOBA above .300, indicates that he might be due for some positive regression.
Mirrored Rookies
An intriguing development involves two rookie phenoms, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt. Their second-half data presents an interesting contrast, with McGonigle overperforming and Wetherholt underperforming.
Diving into their squared-up rates, we find that Wetherholt has been consistently squaring the ball up with ideal launch angles, yet his recent misfortune suggests he might be due for a turnaround. McGonigle, on the other hand, has been less consistent but has still proven himself as one of the best hitters in the American League.
Final Thoughts
As we navigate the fantasy baseball landscape, it's crucial to act on the data and address underperforming positions. The waiver wire might offer limited solutions, but these are the challenges that make fantasy management so engaging.
For those facing similar shortstops woes, Andruw Monasterio might be a short-term solution. While his power numbers have dipped, his on-base skills remain solid. However, it's important to remember that regression is inevitable, and his recent success might be a temporary blip.
In the world of fantasy baseball, every decision matters, and the data often provides the clues we need to make informed choices. So, let's keep an eye on these overperformers and underperformers, and may the best fantasy managers prevail!
